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Commentary
From the Far East to the Old West: Chinese and Japanese Settlers in Montana
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Japan, U.S. should talk straight
Over the past five years, much has been made of the personal rapport between Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and U.S. President George W. Bush. Their friendship is said to have set the tone for smooth diplomatic relations between Japan and the United States--further reinforced by the relatively high popularity both leaders have enjoyed throughout much of their tenure in office.
Now, though, the Bush presidency is in a dramatic tailspin, with its credibility in question over policies from homeland security to the war in Iraq. The political damage to the Bush administration is obvious, but given the "special" relationship that has evolved between Bush and Koizumi, it is possible that Japan-U.S. relations may suffer from collateral damage as well.
It may be difficult for those in Japan to appreciate just how precipitously the Bush presidency has fallen, let alone the political malaise now permeating Washington. Polls show that Bush's popularity has sunk to approximately 40 percent, among the lowest figures for any president this early in a second term. Yet among the so-called chattering classes of Washington's intellectual and political elite, there seems to be an even greater loss of confidence in the president and his administration.
Most significantly, Bush's controversial nomination of Harriet Miers to the U.S. Supreme Court has angered many conservatives at a time when Bush is under attack from all sides for his response to Hurricane Katrina and policy toward Iraq. Other scandals, such as the alleged White House leaking of a U.S. Central Intelligence Agency officer's identity, have further damaged an already shaky presidency.
Meanwhile, the political situation in Tokyo could not be more of a contrast. Koizumi is riding high in the wake of his sweeping victory in the Sept. 11 election. A couple of weeks ago, the House of Councillors approved the prime minister's political raison d'etre, the postal privatization bills, and Koizumi now has the political capital to spend on virtually any agenda of his choosing. Can the growing discrepancy in Bush and Koizumi's respective political standing have an impact on their close relationship and, in turn, bilateral relations? The question, however speculative, may be worth asking, but the answer is difficult to extrapolate in any empirical sense.
Already, though, some Japanese observers note that Koizumi has grown increasingly insular (that is, devoting more attention to domestic rather than bilateral issues) since his electoral victory last month and is eager to shrug off his critics' image of him as "Bush's poodle." Indeed, the prime minister's personal involvement has been conspicuously absent in two bilateral issues that are of top concern to Washington: the dispute over bovine spongiform encephalopathy and the U.S. base realignment talks.
There are also reasons why Bush may be less chummy with Koizumi when he visits Tokyo in November. The president has enjoyed the upper hand over the legislative branch throughout his first term, carving out areas of policy (including Japan policy) with arguably less scrutiny from Congress than ever before. But Bush's recent political misfortunes seem to have triggered more direct oversight from Congress of late.
For the first time since 1998, the U.S. House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee last month held a hearing on Japan-U.S. relations, particularly focusing on the BSE issue and trade disputes over medical devices. Days later, a Senate subcommittee held a similar hearing on Japan. Unlike any earlier period of his presidency, the pressure is now on Bush to show that he can get tough with Koizumi on key U.S. interests ranging from beef exports to military base realignments.
A little tension, though, between Bush and Koizumi might not be such a bad thing. Diplomats often say that disagreement between friends is a healthy sign of a mature alliance. While this may be true, bilateral discord has been unnaturally suppressed in recent years by the veneer of cordiality sustained at the top level.
Inasmuch as friendship between world leaders is truly genuine, the Bush-Koizumi bond has, nevertheless, always been a friendship of convenience--sidestepping underlying bilateral differences for ultimate political goals. Thus Bush downplayed economic problems with Japan when he needed an ally in Iraq, and Koizumi overlooked his nation's ambivalence toward U.S. adventures in the Middle East when he needed to prop his image at photo-op sessions at the Bush ranch in Crawford, Texas.
However pragmatic this tacit arrangement was, it is not sustainable in the long run--either because of the eventual tug of competing national interests or, as the case may now be, the political vulnerability of one of its actors. All would not be lost if both leaders confronted bilateral difficulties more frankly. Much hard work needs to be done to advance the Japan-U.S. relationship beyond the status quo. If Washington is so frustrated with the lack of progress in the base realignment talks, then Bush himself should take the issue up with Koizumi--thereby compelling the prime minister to become more involved in the process. Koizumi should also be more frank about his expectations of U.S. support for Japan in areas such as U.N. reform. These are the kind of issues both nations should address head-on--and at the highest level--even if it leads to some degree of tension. It is time for bilateral summitry to move beyond photo-ops and to a more substantive and potentially constructive dialogue.
Please forward media inquiries to:Director of Communications The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation 
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