Written for The Daily Yomiuri (Washington Japanwatch)
August 10, 2005
The six-party talks on North Korea's nuclear programs started on a high diplomatic
note last week. When lead Japanese negotiator Kenichiro Sasae mentioned the
abduction of Japanese by North Korean agents, his North Korean counterpart
dismissively rolled his eyes and looked away, according to news reports.
Such petty gestures are not uncommon when dealing with North Korean diplomats,
who sometimes sit on higher chairs in order to look down at counterparts
across the negotiating table. But the diplomatic conduct of the other five
parties involved in the talks is hardly a model of statesmanship either,
especially when dealing with each other.
Recently it seems that arrogance and bravado, rather than measured diplomacy,
are the defining traits of statecraft in the region. The past several years
have witnessed a series of comments and gestures by leaders across Northeast
Asia that have wantonly damaged fragile relations for the sake of narrow
domestic interests. Similar insults may have in the past been dismissed as
gaffes, but they are now so routine that it is hard not to see them as a
new and troubling trend in leadership style.
There is enough blame to go around the Pacific Rim, starting with the United
States. The lone superpower's high-handed treatment of others is nothing
new and requires little extra description here. Yet U.S. President George
W. Bush has elevated this practice to a new level. Bush's infamous "axis
of evil" speech carelessly triggered concerns in the region that North
Korea was next on the list for regime change after Iraq. Bush's personal
insults of Kim Jong Il (i.e. "dwarf" and "tyrant") also
have set a standard for schoolyard rhetoric throughout the region.
South Korean President Roh Moo Hyun has smugly advised Bush to tone down his
name calling. Not bad advice, perhaps, but ironic given the South Korean
president's own histrionic outbursts toward allies and neighboring nations.
Bypassing consultation with the professionals in his Foreign Ministry, Roh
several months ago unleashed a bizarre diatribe against Japan, warning of
a "diplomatic war" over historical disputes. Even more disturbing
is Roh's open call for South Korea to become a strategic "balancer" between
Japan and the United States on one hand and North Korea and China on the
other. Needless to say, the comment did not go down well among the "with
us or against us" crowd in Washington.
Reckless rhetoric is not the only cause of acrimony in Northeast Asia. Prime
Minister Junichiro Koizumi continues to visit Yasukuni Shrine as if he were
oblivious to the political consequences of memorializing Class-A war criminals.
The truth is that his visits to the shrine have severely aggravated relations
with Beijing and Seoul and have hampered Japan's progress toward reconciling
its wartime legacy. As if not damaging enough, the Yasukuni controversy only
steepens the uphill battle for Japan to attain a permanent U.N. Security Council
seat.
Lest China take the high road on the issue, Hu Jintao and the leadership in
Beijing have felt compelled to retaliate with their own petty shots. Beijing
has singled out Koizumi as persona non grata, making it clear that it is
willing to receive any visiting Japanese politician but the prime minister.
Since Koizumi has not visited China, Beijing set up another way to get at
the prime minister. In May, Chinese Vice Premier Wu Yi went to Japan to meet
with top-level officials, including Koizumi. On the day she was to meet the
prime minister, however, Wu abruptly canceled and returned to China citing
official business back home.
Despite shattering diplomatic relations with neighbors, this kind of behavior
plays well at home, where standing up to foreign rivals wins great public
approval. Lashing out at Japan, for instance, is a time-honored practice
of boosting support for the government in China and South Korea. In Japan,
as well, even moderates approve of Koizumi continuing to visit Yasukuni Shrine
so as not to back down to foreign pressure.
All this posturing, though, seems to come from another alarming source. There
appears to be a prevailing sense of self-importance among the regional nations,
as if each country believes it has the prerogative to make irresponsible
comments and provoke others with impunity.
Here Roh Moo Hyun's "balancer" statement comes to mind. Aside from
undercutting the U.S.-Korea alliance, the statement shows a kind of hubris
that seems to be afflicting the Blue House of late. Sure, South Korea deserves
to be taken more seriously as a rising economic power and increasingly vibrant
democracy. But South Korea is not yet a country that has the clout to be the
arbiter of great power rivalries in the region. And if Roh aspires to take
on such a role he is grossly overestimating his nation's place in the world.
Similar haughtiness is, again, seen in Koizumi's visits to Yasukuni Shrine.
I am convinced that what really irks China about the visits is not, per se,
that the prime minister is paying homage to war criminals. Rather, what upsets
Beijing most is the fact that Koizumi simply could not care less about how
Yasukuni affects Chinese sensitivities. And what is ultimately insulting
to the Chinese is that Koizumi is so nonplussed by China's vociferous protests
that he does not even hesitate to continue his visits--no wonder Beijing
demonizes Koizumi.
Fortunately, all these snubs and provocations have not spun out of control
yet and led to a real conflict in the region. Such restraint probably has
less to do with enlightened leadership in the region's capitals and more
to do with the fact that there are other concerns that keep public attention
from focusing entirely on sniping with neighbors. But in quieter times, with
no distractions such as North Korea to keep the nations of the region engaged
with each other, an exchange of top-level insults could rapidly get out of
hand. That is perhaps another reason why we should all hope the six-party
talks continue.
Weston Konishi is program director at the Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation.
The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation
1401 New York Ave. NW Suite 740
Washington, DC 20005
Telephone: (202) 347-1994
Fax: (202) 347-3941 matwater@mansfieldfdn.org
