Roundtable Discussion with
Peter Beck, Northeast Asia Project Director, International Crisis
Group
“
Picking Up the Pieces After North Korea’s Missile Launch”
Event Summary
08/22/2006
Peter Beck’s talk focused on the North Korea’s missile
launch on July 5 and the future of the Six Party Talks. Beck is
concerned about the fallout from the missile tests, and believes
the U.S. and North Korea are potentially heading for a head-on
collision.
According to Beck, the Bush administration realizes the seriousness
of the problem, but feels powerless to do anything about it. Bush
administration officials maintain, however, that they have shown
ample flexibility toward North Korea and have exhausted all means
of persuading the regime to return to the negotiating table. Beck
contends, though, that Washington is not doing anything meaningful
to resolve the issue, including engaging in bilateral talks with
the regime.
Beck, who is based in Seoul, says that South Korea is equally
puzzled about the motives and objectives behind North Korea’s
missile launch. In particular, the missile tests seemed to be a
slap in the face for China, which publicly advised the regime not
to follow through with the launches. As with the other relevant
parties, Beck argues, China also does not have an effective policy
for dealing with North Korea.
Given these circumstances, Beck predicts that the crisis will
deepen. With the Middle East getting the bulk of the world’s
attention, he believes North Korea will remind us of its presence
sooner or later.
Turning back to the status of the Six Party Talks, North Korea
regards the South as its cash register and has marginalized Seoul
by denying it any meaningful role in the Six Party Talks, according
to Beck. On the China front, North Korea has been gambling that
China will not forsake the North no matter what it does.
Beck believes the United States has not made the best offer it
can to North Korea, but it may be the case that the North Korea
may need enemies more than friends to distract its people from
the horrible domestic conditions, which are unlikely to improve
any time soon. Beck predicts that the North will keep escalating
until it gets a meaningful response from Washington.
Beck believes, however, that if the United States wanted to, it
could offer North Korea a good will gesture without breaking any
major principles. For example, not all of the North Korean money
in Macau is illegal. The United States should free up untainted
funds.
According to Beck, Seoul is divided between the pro-independence
group and the pro-alliance group over the issues of U.S.-R.O.K.
relations and North Korea. President Roh desires more operational
control over its military in wartime, but Seoul is by no means
ready to shoulder all of its security needs. At the same time,
the July missile tests make the case more difficult for those who
advocate engagement with the North. Meanwhile, there is an overwhelming
indifference towards North Korea by the South Korean public, which
is wary of the consequences of reunification with the North.
On the China front, according to an online survey and a website
called “Blog World,” there is surprising hostility
and growing frustration among the Chinese public toward North Korea,
in sharp contrast to the tone of the government.
Wrapping up his remarks about the Six Party Talks, Beck believes
that the multilateral meetings are now a “dead man walking.”
The last issue Peter Beck discussed was North Korean refugees.
Since June 2001, the ICG Seoul team has done more than 100 interviews
across China and Southeast Asia with North Korean refugees and
NGO leaders. The number of North Korean refugees in China cannot
be calculated. But on the high end, Beck estimates there may be
as many as 100,000 North Korean refugees in China. Others are scattered
in China, Mongolia, Thailand, Vietnam, and elsewhere. Most North
Koreans escaped the country by crossing the China-DPRK border in
order to gain food and money. The Chinese government’s attitude
towards the refugees remains largely hostile, but Beijing always
tries to take a low profile on the issue.
Q&A Session:
1. Question: What are the internal motivations for the missile
launch this time?
Answer: Beck believes there are two possible internal reasons for
the launch. One is to rally support for standing up to the United
States. This is especially important, since domestic conditions
in North Korea have not improved and the North Korean people need
to be distracted. According to Beck, this assessment seems to be
shared by many in the South Korean government. Another possibility
for the tests is that they are the outcome of a power struggle
within the regime between hardliners and moderates. If this is
the case, it appears that the hardliners won the debate over whether
to launch the missiles.
2. Does the U.S. really lack flexibility? It has never left the
negotiations table.
Answer: The U.S. is at the negotiation table, but without enough
sincerity or flexibility. The crackdown of illicit North Korean
funds in Macau has sent a signal that the United States is tightening
the noose around the regime’s neck. According to Beck, this
crackdown is widening. Vietnam has shut down all North Korean financial
activities recently. Beck says that besides China, Russia is the
only place North Korea can turn to for financial dealings.
Beck argues that the U.S. ought to have more flexibility in order
to test North Korea’s seriousness about returning to the
table. One participant added that the financial issue may be only
of symbolic value and importance to North Korea.
3. What is Seoul’s attitude towards the refugees?
Answer: Seoul does not encourage refugees to enter South Korea,
but it is not turning them away either. Southeast Asian countries
want the refugees to leave their countries as quickly as possible.
The South Korean government issued statements disapproving of
the “underground railway” mainly because the brokers
are often times human traffickers.
(The point was also raised that some refugees left South Korea
for other countries because of their questionable behavior during
their stay)
4. Could you talk about President Roh’s visit to Washington,
D.C. in September?
Answer: Much to the disappointment of South Koreans, President
Bush is unlikely to extend Roh the same warmth and hospitality
that he has shown Prime Minister Koizumi of Japan. There is no
great trust between Roh and Bush. South Korea and the U.S. may
both understand the alliance may not last forever, but the U.S.
is still the best available option for South Korea to meet its
security needs.
Peter Beck is the Project Director of Northeast Asia, International
Crisis Group
The Maureen and Mike Mansfield Foundation
1401 New York Ave. NW Suite 740
Washington, DC 20005
Telephone: (202) 347-1994
Fax: (202) 347-3941 matwater@mansfieldfdn.org
