"The Upcoming Diet Elections and Implications for Japan's
Foreign and Defense Policies"
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
By Teruo Iwai, Program Assistant
Dr. Jimbo began his presentation by providing a brief overview
of the current status of Japanese politics. He suggested that the
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) seems to be winning at this point
mainly due to Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi’s successful
media strategy to portray the LDP as a real reformer and the Democratic
Party of Japan (DPJ) as opposing his reform measures. Dr. Jimbo,
however, stated that the DPJ still has an opportunity to gain enough
seats to threaten the LDP-Komeito coalition government. He also
said that if neither the LDP-Komeito nor the DPJ wins the majority,
the two new parties, comprised of so-called rebels who have been
kicked out of the LDP for voting against the postal privatization
bill, could play an important role.
Dr. Jimbo then laid out three possible post-election scenarios,
and what each scenario means for Japan’s foreign and defense
policies.
First, if the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito win the majority,
there will be no change in Japan’s foreign and defense policies.
As such a result will maintain the strong “Bush-Koizumi line,” there
will not be a significant change in U.S.-Japan relations, Dr. Jimbo
said.
Second, if the DPJ wins the majority, Mr. Katsuya Okada, the head
of the DPJ, will put more emphasis on Japan’s ties with Asia,
as is stated in the party platform. Dr. Jimbo said, however, that
the DPJ will do so based on its understanding of the importance
of the U.S.-Japan relations. Thus, in his opinion, a DPJ administration
will not be like the current Blue House of South Korea in its relationship
with the United States.
Dr. Jimbo said that Iraq will be a “litmus test” for
the DPJ’s foreign policy. The DPJ has promised to withdraw
Japan’s Self-Defense Forces from Iraq when the bill authorizing
the deployment ends in December. However, Dr. Jimbo argued that
this plan would be complicated by the fact that it would take several
more months for SDF troops to complete their withdrawal from Iraq.
Dr. Jimbo said that the DPJ might try to placate the United States
by providing alternative types of support for humanitarian operations
in Iraq.
Finally, if neither the LDP-Komeito coalition nor the DPJ gains
the majority, both Prime Minister Koizumi and Mr. Okada will resign.
Dr. Jimbo said that for the LDP, Mr. Yasuo Fukuda, Mr. Shinzo Abe,
or Mr. Taro Aso will most likely succeed Prime Minister Koizumi
as party president. Mr. Fukuda would likely put more emphasis on
ties with Asia, and will not visit Yasukuni shrine if he becomes
the next prime minister. Mr. Abe, however, has promised to visit
the shrine, which enshrines the remains of several Class-A war
criminals of World War II. However, regardless of who becomes the
next party president, the LDP will try to maintain a strong U.S.-Japan
alliance, said Dr. Jimbo.
On the other hand, there is so much uncertainty in the post-Okada
DPJ. Possible candidates for the next party head include Mr. Ichiro
Ozawa and Mr. Naoto Kan, but a clear successor to Mr. Okada is
still unknown.
Dr. Jimbo also argued that there are three emerging new concepts
in Japan’s defense policy.
First, the events of September 11, 2001 have caused a paradigm
shift in the U.S.-Japan alliance. Dr. Jimbo argued that security
issues in Northeast Asia are no longer merely regional, but are
global in scope. For instance, the nature of the North Korean threat
has changed since the 1994 nuclear crisis, due to the regime’s
capacity to proliferate Weapons of Mass Destruction and development
of medium and long-range missiles. The changing nature of security
threats has allowed Japan’s security policy to be inextricably
linked to U.S. homeland security concerns.
Second, Japan now sees its engagements in international activities
as a part of its national security agenda. Dr. Jimbo argued that
while Japan took part in conventional UN Peacekeeping Operations
such as in Cambodia and the Golan Heights, its current engagement
in Iraq is different from previous activities in nature, as Japan
initiated this effort for its national interests.
Third, Japan’s awareness of the potential threat from China
is rising.
Japanese defense planners are concerned about Beijing’s
strategic direction and growing clout in the global arena.
Dr. Jimbo concluded his presentation by pointing out that the
Constitution and budget issues are key restrictions on Japan’s
evolving defense policy. He argued that Article 9 (or the so-called
peace clause) will take time to revise and that the Defense Agency’s
budget strategy is to “scrap and build” resources to
make way for a transformation of the SDF.
A Q&A session followed the presentation, with Dr. Jimbo making
the following points:
· Mr. Okada of the DPJ is keen on promoting the formation
of an East Asian community, including Free Trade Agreements with
other nations.
· The DPJ supports the withdrawal of US Marines from Okinawa but several
party leaders endorse relocating Marine bases to other parts of Japan.
· Dr. Jimbo agreed with the observation that Koizumi has created a more
top-down decision-making process, particularly for defense and foreign policymaking.
However, Japan’s budgetary process is still bottom-up.
· Koizumi will likely visit Yasukuni Shrine in December, should he survive
the Sept. 11 elections. However, the political consequences of canceling his
visit to the shrine are not severe as long as it is not in light of pressure
from China and South Korea.
