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OPINION POLL (P06-1)

February 2006 Nikkei Regular Telephone Opinion Poll

Dates Conducted

February 2-5, 2006

Released

February 6, 2006
Copyright 2006 Nikkei Shimbun

Methodology

The Nikkei Shimbun regularly conducts public opinion polls on attitudes toward the government and domestic policy issues. The telephone poll surveyed 925 males and females over the age of 20 throughout Japan.

Key Issues

• Support for Prime Minister Koizumi
• US beef import ban
• Post-Koizumi leadership
• Negotiations with North Korea on abductee issue

Background

Japan re-imposed a ban on US beef imports in late January after a company in New York shipped spinal cord parts to Japan in violation of new restrictions aimed at containing the spread of mad cow disease (or BSE). The restrictions were part of an agreement that, in December, lifted a two-year ban on US beef that was the source of mounting bilateral trade friction. The issue reignited debate about Japanese consumer confidence in US agricultural products versus US complaints of excessively high import standards in Japan.

Another news item dominated Japanese media coverage in January. Takafumi Horie, a young entrepreneur, was raided by authorities for alleged finance violations involving his Internet conglomerate, Livedoor. The raid led to massive trading in the Tokyo Stock Exchange, which was overwhelmed by the sudden wave of activity, and cast doubts about the durability of Japan’s emerging “New Economy,” The case drew speculation of wider political fallout, since the LDP courted Horie as a candidate for the Diet in last year’s Lower House elections.

Tokyo also announced, in the midst of stalled Six-Party Talks, that it would resume diplomatic normalization talks with North Korea. Japan made it clear that resolution of the abductee issue is a condition for normalization with North Korea. The talks would also address concerns about North Korea’s nuclear development and missile program.

Link to Original Source

http://www.nikkei-r.co.jp/nikkeipoll/results.html

Disclaimer

The Mansfield Foundation is responsible for the translation of this Nikkei telephone poll, subject to the Mansfield Foundation Terms of Use.

Survey:

Q1. Do you support the Koizumi Cabinet or not? (N=925)

Support	45%
Don't support	43%
Can't say/don't know	12%

Q1SQ1. For those who answered “support” in Q1, what is the reason for your support? Please choose as many as apply from the following seven answers. (N=419)

Because it is an LDP cabinet	18%
Good policies	14%
Good sense of international affairs	10%
Leadership	42%
Stability	18%
Can trust members' personalities	26%
Clean	17%
Others	4%
Can't say/don't know	6%

Q1SQ2. For those who answered “don’t support” in Q1, what is the reason for your non-support? Please choose as many as apply from the following seven answers. (N=394)

Because it is an LDP cabinet	18%
Bad policies	44%
Bad sense of international affairs	29%
Lack of leadership	10%
Instability	19%
Cannot trust members' personalities	33%
Not clean	3%
Others	6%
Can't say/don't know	2%

Q2. What political party do you currently support? Please choose only one. (N=925)

Liberal Democratic Party	36%
Democratic Party of Japan	15%
New Komeito	3%
Japanese Communist Party	1%
Social Democratic Party	2%
The People's New Party	0%
New Party Nippon	0%
Others	0%
Don't support any party	37%
Can't say/don't know	5%

Q2SQ. For those who answered “don’t support any party” or “can’t say/don’t know” in Q2, if you have to choose one party, which party do you feel is most preferable? Please choose only one. (N=392)

Liberal Democratic Party	20%
Democratic Party of Japan	16%
New Komeito	2%
Japanese Communist Party	3%
Social Democratic Party	4%
The People's New Party	0%
New Party Nippon	0%
Others	0%
Don't support any party	42%
Can't say/don't know	14%

[Support + preferable parties (N=925)]

Liberal Democratic Party	44%
Democratic Party of Japan	22%
New Komeito	4%
Japanese Communist Party	3%
Social Democratic Party	3%
The People's New Party	0%
New Party Nippon	0%
Others	0%
Don't support any party	18%
Can't say/don't know	6%

Q3. The Liberal Democratic Party supported Takafumi Horie, who is the former CEO of Livedoor and a crime suspect, in last year’s Lower House elections. Do you think LDP bears some responsibility for endorsing Horie? Please choose one of the following two answers. (N=925)

Responsible	48%
Not responsible	40%
Can't say/don't know	12%

Q4. It was revealed that there were risky beef parts included in the U.S. beef imports. The Japanese government decided to ban the U.S. beef import. What do you think the future response should be? Please choose one of the following three answers. (N=925)

Should resume the import soon	6%
Should spend time to confirm the safety	79%
Should not consider the resumption of import	7%
Can't say/don't know	8%

Q5. Are you likely to purchase U.S. beef products if the import resumes? Please choose one of the following two answers. (N=925)

Likely to purchase	27%
Not likely to purchase	64%
Don't know/can't say	10%

Q6. Which of the following four answers describes your current living standard? (N=925)

Upper class	1%
Middle class	54%
Lower class	37%
Can't say/don't know	9%

Q7. How has your living standard changed in the last five years? Please choose one of the following three answers. (N=925)

Improved	11%
Has not changed	46%
Deteriorated	36%
Can't say/don't know	7%

Q8. There is a rigorous debate within the government and ruling parties about raising the consumption tax rate. What do you think about a tax increase? Please choose one of the following four answers. (N=925)

Inevitable for fiscal revitalization	15%
Acceptable if the raised portion is spent for limited projects such as the government pension plans, etc.	29%
Should maintain the tax rate around the range of the current rate	35%
Should abolish the consumption tax	11%
Others	1%
Can't say/don't know	10%

Q8SQ. For those who answered “inevitable for fiscal revitalization” or “acceptable if the raised portion is spent for limited projects such as the government pension plans, etc.” in Q8, what do you think should be the ceiling for the consumption tax rate in case it is raised? Please choose one answer that is the closest to your thinking. (N=408)

8%	24%
10%	53%
12%	7%
15%	11%
20%	2%
Can't say/don't know	2%

Q9. Prime Minister Koizumi’s tenure as LDP president will end this September. Who do you think is appropriate as the next prime minister? Please choose only one of the following. (N=925)

Taro Aso	4%
Shinzo Abe	38%
Heizo Takenaka	2%
Sadakazu Tanigaki	2%
Yasuo Fukuda	13%
Taku Yamasaki	1%
Ichiro Ozawa	6%
Naoto Kan	4%
Seiji Maehara	4%
Others	2%
Can't say/don't know	24%

Q10. A council of advisors to the prime minister decided to support the idea of female emperors. What do you think about this? Please choose one from the following two answers. (N=925)

Support	63%
Oppose	21%
Can't say/don't know	16%

Q11. In order to resolve the abductee issue, etc., what do you think should be the nature of future negotiations with North Korea? Please choose one of the following two answers. (N=925)

Should have a hardline position including economic embargoes	71%
Should encourage softening through dialogue and humanitarian aid	18%
Can't say/don't know	11%

F1. Gender (judged by interviewers, N=925)

Male	42%
Female	58%
Unknown	0%

F2. Age (N=925, Average: 52.8)

20s	8%
30s	17%
40s	14%
50s	24%
60s	19%
Over 70	16%
Refuse to answer	1%

F3. What is your occupation? Please choose one from the following. (N=925)

Agriculture, forestry, fishery	3%
Employed (corporate employee, bureaucrat, teacher, etc.)	43%
Self-employed (business, engineer), freelance (including family business)	13%
Housewife (without any outside job)	19%
Student	2%
Unemployed	19%
Refuse to answer	1%

[Note: Figures appear as originally published by the Nikkei Shimbun.]