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OPINION POLL (P 05-5)

Monthly JoongAng Survey Research on US-Korea Alliance

Date Conducted

June 30 – July 8, 2005

Methodology

This survey of 101 South Korean experts in security and foreign affairs was conducted by Monthly JoongAng (a monthly periodical published by JoongAng Ilbo) via e-mail, fax and telephone. The experts include university professors (56.4%); researchers in think-tanks (19.8%); National Assembly members in relevant committees (13.9%) and government officials (9.9%).

With permission from the JoongAng Ilbo Sisa media, The Mansfield Foundation translated the survey questions and results into English. The Foundation used an internet version of Monthly JoongAng (August 2005).

Key Issues

* Current Korea-US alliance relationship & issues
* The Roh Moo Hyun Administration and its policy towards the US
* Prospects for future Korea-US relations

Link to Source

http://monthly2.joins.com/monthly/article/mj_current/0,5386,hosu%252D200508,00.html

Use of this poll is subject to the Mansfield Foundation Terms of Use.

On Current Korea-US Alliance Relations

1. How do you evaluate current Korea-US alliance relations?

Very strong	1.0%
Basically strong	15.8%
Neither strong nor weak	25.7%
Weak	41.6%
Very weak	15.8%

2. Compared to the previous Kim Dae-jung Administration, how do you evaluate the current Korea-US relationship?

The relationship has strengthened	2.0%
Hasn't changed much	19.8%
Has weakened	61.4%
Has seriously weakened	15.8%
Don't have an opinion/ No response	1.0%

3. Do you see the current state of Korea-US relations as desirable?

Yes	13.9%
No	86.1%

4. If the Korea-US alliance has weakened, what do you think is the major cause? (This Question was asked to the respondents who had answered “weakened” or “seriously weakened” in Question 2.)

The Participatory Government's* policy towards the United States	57.7%
The Participatory Government's policy towards North Korea	26.9%
Changes in US policy towards Korea	7.7%
Rising anti-Americanism in Korea	3.8%
The shift of international order	3.8%

* The Roh Moo Hyun Administration of South Korea describes itself as “the Participatory Government,” and the term is the equivalent to “The Roh Administration.”

5. If the Korea-US alliance has strengthened, what do you think is the major cause? (This Question was asked of respondents who answered “strengthened” or “hasn’t changed” in question 2.)

The Participatory Government's policy towards the United States	50%
Don't have an opinion/No response	50%

The Roh Administration’s Policy Toward the United States

6. How do you evaluate the Participatory Government’s view of the United States?

US-leaning or US-dependent	2.0%
Balanced	20.8%
Non-aligned with the US	44.6%
Anti-American	25.7%
Don't have an opinion/No response	2.0%

7. How do you rate the Participatory Government’s policy towards the United States?

Excellent	3.0%
Pretty good	10.9%
Fair	12.9%
Poor	51.5%
Very poor	20.8%

8. If you answered “poor” or “very poor” in question 7, why do you think government policies are made or implemented in an undesirable way?

Amateurish performance of security/foreign policy apparatus of the administration	46.6%
Changes in international order, particularly the changing balance in East Asia	5.5%
Anti-American or independent policy of theRohAdministration	45.2%
US unilateral foreign policy	1.4%
Don't have an opinion/No response	1.4%

9. Do you think the current security/foreign policy apparatus is doing a good job or poor job in carrying out its tasks?

Excellent job	1.0%
Fairly good job	6.9%
Doing as good as previous governments	14.9%
Poor job	53.5%
Very poor job	22.8%
Don't have an opinion/No response	1.0%

10. What do you think is the problem of security/foreign policy apparatus of the Participatory Government?

Systemic problem. The current system, in which the National Security Council plays a central role, is the problem	36.6%
System is okay, but composition of the staff causes problems	37.6%
System and staff are okay, but their foreign policy strategy causes problems	6.9%
US-related issues have overwhelmed the system	11.9%
Don't have an opinion/No response	4.0%

11. How do you rate the outcome of the last US-Korea Summit meeting on 10 June 2005?

Very successful	13.9%
Didn't produce a very meaningful result	77.2%
Very unsuccessful	7.9%
Don't have an opinion/No response	1.0%

Current Issues regarding the Korea-US relations

12. Under the Roh Administration, a variety of issues has been discussed and negotiated between South Korea and the United States. What is your general opinion of the outcome of negotiations?

Fairly satisfactory	15.8%
Not so bad	49.5%
Somewhat negative	22.8%
Very negative and unproductive	10.9%
Don't have an opinion/No response	1.0%

13. It is pointed out that US plans for “strategic flexibility” and an “Operation Plan”* may infringe on the sovereignty of South Korea. What do you think of this argument?

Agree very much	9.9%
Agree to some extent	41.6%
Disagree in general	39.6%
Disagree completely	7.9%
Don't have an opinion/No response	1.0%

*“Operation Plan” refers to joint US Forces Korea-Republic of Korea contingency plans for the Korean Peninsula.

14. Which comes closer to your own opinion regarding the issues of new military doctrines and strategies that the US wants Korea to accept, such as “Strategic Flexibility” and developing an “Operation Plan”?

Although they affect South Korean security unfavorably, we should accept them for the sake of maintaining the US-Korea alliance	4.0%
We should accept them, because they serve Korea's national interests	44.6%
We should not accept them, because they do harm to Korea's national interests	21.8%
Other opinions	Should put off the negotiation, and accept them only on the condition of US concessions	12.9%
Should re-negotiate so that the agreement will more closely reflect Korean interests	3.0%
Should co-ordinate and negotiate conflicting interests	11.9%

* This refers to joint USFK-ROK operation plans for various contingencies on the Korean Peninsula.

Prospects for Korea-US relations

15. What should be the priority among South Korea’s bilateral relationship?

Korea-US relations	85.1%
Korea-China relations	2.0%
Inter-Korean relations	11.9%
Don't have an opinion/No response	1.0%

16. Given the security situation in the Korean peninsula, what do you think of a withdrawal of US troops at this point?

US troops should not be withdrawn at all, not even partially	13.9%
Partial withdrawal is possible, yet complete withdrawal shouldn't be approved	59.4%
US troops should start to be reduced, and eventually be withdrawn except minimum level of presence	23.8%
US troops should be withdrawn completely	1.0%
Don't have an opinion/No response	2.0%

17. What do you think the future Korea-US relations should be like?

The US-Korea alliance should be reinforced/ consolidated	54.5%
The relationship should maintain its current direction	11.9%
Korea should be more independent and diversify its alliance relations	28.7%
A blood alliance between Korea and the US is no longer desirable or relevant	3.0%
Don't have an opinion/No response	2.0%

18. Why do you think the Korea-US alliance is necessary?

To deter potential invasion from North Korea	19.8%
To balance against emerging powerful neighbors such as China and Japan	66.3%
Because of high economic interdependence	6.9%
Because the US is the most friendly nation to South Korea	0.0%
Don't have an opinion/No response	6.9%